SS&C Blog

BLOGS. December 19, 2023

Forecasting the Economy is Tricky, But We Can Look at Trends

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting the economy has been a challenge, even for the experts. The disruption in the supply chain is one example of a factor causing inflation. This led to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates at an unprecedented speed. At that time, economists forecasted the economy would end up in a recession. However, third quarter 2023 GDP was up 5.2%! Inflation has been trending down and now economists are calling for the elusive “soft landing.” Although it looks like a low probability, it is possible. What’s next? Let’s review some of the major economic variables as well as other indicators used to forecast the economy.